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Initially, the former US president gave the impression to embrace a resolute stance on the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing statements of "severe repercussions" in August should Putin persisted blocking truce talks, Trump finally enacted substantial restrictions on the Russian biggest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly affected the Russian leader's capability to support his aggression in Ukraine.

But, via his recently unveiled detailed peace proposal for the conflict, that was drafted by US and Russian representatives excluding Ukraine's or EU participation, he has seemingly reverted to his favorable to Russia stance.

Benefiting Invasion

The former president's plan would essentially benefit Putin for occupying Ukraine while putting Ukraine's political freedom in jeopardy. Although ringing declarations that "The nation's independence will be upheld", significant aspects of the plan effectively compromise that essential autonomy. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his real-estate background, Trump seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a simple territorial dispute, like ceding Putin a section of Ukraine's territory will satisfy the leader. Yet, Putin's war is not merely about controlling a destroyed swath of industrial-devastated area in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's political system – and Putin's obvious intention to destroy it so it no longer acts as an enticing model for the Russian people of the democratic leadership that Putin's increasing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Territorial Giveaways

Although freezing in place the currently divided Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the proposal would compel the nation to abandon the entire Donetsk region. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its forces have been unable to occupy in more than a decade of warfare, this surrender would make Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously undermined.

This region is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that constitute a essential obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these positions, giving Putin a open way to Kyiv in case he later decide to resume the conflict.

Armed Forces Limitations

Furthermore, in a move that would enable additional conflict easier for Russia, Trump would mandate the nation to cut the numbers of its troops from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a maximum of this lower number. Importantly, the initiative places no such limits on Russia's military.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's attempts to portray the nation's democratically elected government as extremists, Trump's plan asserts: "Any extremist belief system and actions must be opposed and prohibited." Seemingly to emphasize this element, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a truce. However, the proposal places no obligation that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by allowing democratic processes in Russia.

Security Assurances

Admittedly, the initiative includes the Russian Federation commit not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in regulation its policy of peaceful relations towards European nations and Ukraine". However given that Putin has violated comparable treaties in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to honor Ukraine's borders in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a return of seized land in the Donbas to Kyiv – for what reason should anyone have confidence in this commitment on this occasion?

That is why Ukraine has been so adamant on external protection assurances. Although the initiative warns of a "immediate coordinated military response" in case Russia renew its aggression, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the details range from vague to troubling. The plan would not only deny Ukraine alliance membership but also prohibit member states from deploying forces on the nation's land, thus preventing the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Russia from restoring his diminished troops, rearming, and attacking again.

International Concern

An additional side agreement reportedly would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any subsequent "major, planned, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an act of war jeopardizing the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. However different from a powerful Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary deterrent against renewed invasion – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of Western powers, including the US administration, to act militarily to Putin's attacks, something they have {not