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Mounting concerns exist over the potential of warfare involving East African countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as aggressive discourse has escalated in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for access to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has sparked a heated war of words.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in 2023 that his government's maritime access was an vital issue, statements that Eritrea dismissed.

Relations between the both governments have regularly been difficult. Following a prolonged fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a long maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, leaving it without sea access.

Subsequently, a military clash started in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Recent Statements from Ethiopian Government

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted control of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – about 60km from the border - and implied the wish to take it by force.

Recently, Abiy said Ethiopia's "blunder" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a due to Eritrea's separation would be "rectified in the future".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Statements

Amid persistent threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to concise remarks on social media from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for sea access calling it "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a strategy of claiming back previous domains.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on recently that efforts to legitimise "blatant hostility" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Ground

So far, there are few indications of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the two countries.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, state television has broadcast graduation ceremonies of many recruits at various military training camps.

The leader of human resources department of the armed forces, the officer, commented lately in an interview that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of young people" were joining it, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Previous Roots of the Conflict

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, the territory was administered by Italian colonisers.

Following World War II, it was then managed by the UK forces before evolving into a integrated region of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this system and the region became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long internal conflict followed, concluding with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then confirmed by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they disagreed over the precise positioning of their common border, causing war in 1998.

Although this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors remained at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made gestures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders signed a announcement that the conflict was concluded – a action that gained the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then allies in the country's 2020-2022 civil war in Tigray.

However ties have since broken down again.