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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute assurances matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.