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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing positions."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."